Last week, 5 major currency had increased in a good position which is where some indicators fundamental gave tremendous impact. From 1-7 may 2011, I will summarize what had been happened along this week and help to trader by analyzing both technical and fundamental factors. To get more detail refer to forexfactory
Technical
EUR/USD, Retail Sales m/m was bad from 0,25% (forecast) to -1,0% (actual), German Factory Orders m/m dropped sharply from 0,4% to -4,0%, Minimum Bid Rate was still the same 1,25%, ECB Press Conference , German Industrial Production m/m rose slightly from forecast 0,6% to actual 0,7%
AUD/USD, HPI q/q dropped from 0,3% to -1,7% , Cash Rate remain unchanged 4,75%, AIG Services Index was good 51,5 compare with previous 46,5, HIA New Home Sales m/m increased from 0,6% to 4,3% , Building Approvals m/m rose sharply 5,5% to 9,1%, Retail Sales m/m was bad from 0,6% to -0,5%, RBA
GBP/USD, BOE Gov King Speaks, Manufacturing PMI dropped from 57,0 to 54,6, CBI Realized Sales showed a good result about 21 compare with previous 15, Nationwide HPI m/m reduced from 0,3% to -0,2%, Construction PMI dropped from 55,6 to 53,3, Net Lending to Individuals m/m was not good from 1,7B to 0,5B, Services PMI was bad from 55,8 (forecast) to 54,3 (actual), Asset Purchase Facility was remain unchanged about 200B, Official Bank Rate still the same about 0,50%, PPI Input m/m rose from 1,7% to 2,6%,
USD/JPY, Average Cash Earnings y/y was not good from -0,1% to -0,4%, along this week there have no much indicator that can be used to gauge yen currency mover.
USD/CHF, Retail Sales y/y was still bad which dropped from 2,3% to 0,2%, SVME PMI fell slightly from 58,8 to 58,4, Unemployment Rate rose just a little from 3,2% to 3,1%
Fundamental
EUR, two important indicator ECB and minimum bid was the most influence in this week. President Jean- Claude Trichet today may indicate just how fast he’s prepared to raise interest rates over the coming months. Monetary policy elsewhere is becoming tight and for ECB stetment can be read here. Moreover, if we look AUD, The rising exchange rate will be helping to hold down prices for some consumer products over the coming few quarters. Senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney who predicts the central bank’s next rate increase will be in October (). At this time, diseaster in "Widespread flooding in the eastern states, particularly Queensland, and other recent natural disasters have not adversely affected participation by providers in the Building Approvals collection or the quality of estimates in this release," the ABS said in a statment. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens has paused raising interest rates for the past five meetings to help Queensland state recover from damage to properties, mines and crops from floods and a cyclone. There is a lot of uncertainty over households. RBA also Sees Need for Higher Rates ‘At Some Point’ to Slow Australia Inflation. For GBP, There is raft of evidence showing the UK housing market is suffering from historically low levels of activity. Mortgage approvals have been running around half long run averages. The economy stalled over the fourth and first quarters, and surveys this week showed services, manufacturing and construction growth moderated in April. Officials, who will publish new growth and inflation forecasts next week, are split on the threats from government spending cuts and inflation that’s double the central bank’s 2 percent target. “The outlook for growth is tepid and the committee may not do anything until November,” said David Tinsley, an economist at National Australia Bank in London and a former central bank official. Worsening economic data may ease pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates to curb inflation, which has soared to more than twice the central bank’s 2 percent target. "The service sector suffered a sharp loss of growth momentum at the start of the second quarter. The survey's measure of business activity showed the second-largest fall since October 2008, exceeded only by the sector's weather-related slide back into contraction in December," Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said. The rising cost of crude oil and imported goods pushed input price inflation to its highest level for two and half years in April. Instead of he impact of the rise in clothing and footwear prices. For JPY, no many fundamental factorthat we can analyze for yen currency, one of may impact yen currency mover is average cash earning which showed that Japan March wages fall first time in 13 months after quake instead of two other disaster tsunami and nuclear. These factors also affect crisis hurt jobs as well as income. Furthermore, factor that affect CHF currency are Sales of food, beverages and tobacco declined 1.3 percent, while non-food sales excluding fuel rose 2.6 percent so that retail sales declined. In addition, falls in the output and backlog of orders subcomponents must be consider as well.
In conclusion, I strongly suggest to pay more attention in which where I give bold some important indicators above before making a decision, because those indicator will definitely influence of currency mover. Along this week, 5 major currency dropped gradually toward USD, this because of bad result of fundamental factors.
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