No Much Improvement Of 5 Major Currency Along This Week

On 15-21 may 2011, many factors had influenced 5 major currency mover along this week both fundamental and technical. If you see last week, the movement of currency had dropped because of bad result. Now, i would like to give a summary so that the trader know more detail before taking a buying or selling decision.

Technical

EUR/USD, CPI y/y remain unchanged about 2,8%, Core CPI y/y was good result from 1,5% to 1,6%, German ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from 4,8 (forecast) to 3,1 (actual), ZEW Economic Sentiment also dropped from 17,9 to 13,6, German PPI m/m rose from 0,6% to 1,0%, Current Account reduced from -5,7B to -4,7B

AUD/USD, Home Loans m/m reduced from 2,3% (forecast)  to -1,5% (actual), New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m was bad from 3,9% to -3,5%, Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropped from 1,2% to -1,3%, Wage Price Index q/q was not good result from 1,2% to 0,8%, MI Inflation Expectations 3,5% to 3,3%

GBP/USD, Rightmove HPI m/m 1,7% to 1,3%, CPI y/y rose slightly from 4,2% (forecast) to 4,5% (actual) , it was more than expectation, RPI y/y dropeed slightly from 5,3% to 5,2%, Claimant Count Change plunged from 0,4K to 12,4K, MPC Meeting Minutes was the same with previous result about 3-0-6, Average Earnings Index 3m/y increased from 2,0% to 2,3%, Nationwide Consumer Confidence dropped from 48 to 43, Retail Sales m/m rose more than expectation from 0,9% (forecast) to 1,1% (actual), CBI Industrial Order Expectations had a positive sign which reduce time by time to the better result -5 to -2

USD/JPY, Core Machinery Orders m/m -9,7% to 2,9%, Tertiary Industry Activity m/m -5,4% to -6,0%, Prelim GDP q/q -0,5% to -0,9%, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y rose slightly from -1,9% (actual)to -1,6% (previous), Overnight Call Rate remain unchanged about <0,10%

USD/CHF, no have something high impact of indicator for this week

 

Fundamental

Firstly we look at what fundamental factor will influence EUR currency, the crisis in the eurozone and global economic imbalances, should be recognised," says ZEW President Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult. Wolfgang Franz. the financial market experts consider a further increase of the economic momentum to be unlikely. Moreover, mixed signals regarding the state of the U.S. economy as well as a weaker outlook for the Chinese economy might have dampened expectations  

For AUD currency, the trader must look at what had been released from the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

There have many fundamental factors which influence along this week for GBP pound like making higher sales tax and increase in energy as well as import prices. While King said inflation is likely to rise further in the next few months, he sees it easing toward the bank’s 2 percent target next year. The central bank signaled last week it may need to raise the key interest rate from a record low to control “uncomfortably high” price growth. bring inflation back to the target quickly risks generating undesirable volatility in output and would increase the chances of undershooting the target in the medium term,” King said. The price gains on the month and the year were led by costs for transport as well as alcohol and tobacco 

Some fundamental factors showed for (JPY)yen currency mover caused by Quake Tsunami, this disaster become the most influence for Japan economy disruptions like factory shutdowns, power shortages and supply-chain as well as consumers to cut back spending. Meanwhile, The BOJ board decided earlier on Friday to keep monetary policy steady in a sign that a first-quarter economic slump had not changed the central bank's view that growth will pick up around autumn . Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura dropped his proposal to loosen policy further with an expansion of the central bank's asset-buying scheme. However, overseas economic growth remains strong and supply constraints are easing at a pace that the central bank had forecast last month. 

No much data can be found for swiss franc (CHF) in this week, the factor that the trader must pay attention is the failure problem of big bank will negatively impact Switzerland economy. The state is trying to rescue a company by bail out some additional fund and balanced package of measures for Parliament's consideration can help reducing the problem in Switzerland.

As a result, if we look all 5 major currency in this week showed a good sign but the improvement was not too much, it was caused by some bad news of fundamental factor. The red color above show the trader must watch and pay attention because these kind of indicator had given a high impact to the currency mover. Hopefully, this summary can help you guys to determine in the coming week.

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