8-13 may 2011, if we look at last week, some of 5 major currency showed bad result which means that almost all major currency declined gradually toward USD. Today, I try to make summarize by choosing what indicators which have a high impact along this week, the trader must analyze what had been happened along this week, and these both technical and fundamental factor will definitely influence currency mover in the coming week. It is good for trader to prepare what decision will be taken next week. I divided into two part analysis, for more further information please look at forexfactory.
Technical
EUR/USD, French Industrial Production m/m dropped from 0,55 to -0,9%. Industrial Production m/m was bad result from 0,4% to -0,2%. French Prelim GDP q/q had raised from 0,6% to 1,0%. German Prelim GDP q/q was also going up 0,95 to 1,5%. French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q growth from 0,2% (previous) to 0,4% (actual). Flash GDP q/q was good from 0,6% to 0,8%
AUD/USD, ANZ Job Advertisements m/m declined from 1,3% (previous) to 1,0%. NAB Business Confidence was down slightly from 9 to 7. Trade Balance rose from 0,49B to 1,74B. Employment Change showed a bad from 17,6K to -22,1K
Unemployment Rate still remain unchanged about 4,9%
GBP/USD, Halifax HPI m/m dropped from 0,2% to -1,4%. BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y was good result from -3,5% to 5,2%. RICS House Price Balance good increased slightly from -22% to -21%. Manufacturing Production m/m rose slightly from 0,3% to 0,2%
NIESR GDP Estimate was not a good sign from 0,5% to 0,3%
USD/CHF, SECO Consumer Climate plunged significantly from 10 to -1. CPI m/m also dropped from 0,5% to 0,1%. PPI m/m was not like expected which dropped from 0,4% to 0,3%
USD/JPY, for yen currency is no much indicator can be analyzed, the screenshoot of yen currency showed below
Fundamental
We started from EUR currency, some reasons which give big influence because the rise of the euro had a role in weakening industrial output. The higher costs for importers overseas made European exports less attractive. It’s becoming hard for Germany to carry all the Euro-zone on its shoulders, and this is true for the debt crisis as well. Moreover, what outlook for German in 2011 can be read about German economy starting into 2011 with momentum. ECB said "We should assure a sustainable contribution to [economic] growth by the financial sector. Spain has taken measures of an historic dimension to accommodate demand for credit once it recovers, Ordonez said.
How about AUD currency, some reason are the federal government also announced plans to alleviate labour shortages that threaten to fuel inflation as Australia rides an historic Asia-led resources boom. But most of the measures have already been leaked and there was little left to surprise investors. Analysts say the budget has little bearing on their interest rate outlook Another is because steep decline in full-time jobs, prompting markets to slice a full cent off the Australian dollar as markets lowered the risk of a near-term interest rate hike. The job gains have been led by health, construction, education and professional sectors. Bumper returns on key exports such as iron ore and coal are giving miners massive amounts of cash to invest, employ and pay a lot more. At the same time, the windfall to national incomes is driving strong growth in household demand for services, from health to education.
GBP factors also affect currency mover like trying to assess the precise degree of pass-through is obviously difficult. Our best estimate is around three-quarters of the increase in VAT was passed through which is likely to add a little more than 1 percentage point to the inflation rate. Some analysts have said with the wedge so wide, a hike in Bank Rate may make little difference to commercial banks, as the wedge could narrow, but King appeared to take the opposite view. Weak confidence amongst households, partly due to uncertainty over the economic outlook, is constraining housing demand, as signs of a fading economic recovery and tighter lending conditions dented property demand. Manufacturing was one of the drivers of the British economy until a few months ago, but also this sector significantly slowed down, as seen in the last two purchasing managers’ indices. For Japan currency, financial institutions were restoring their closed branches while at the same time shifting their operations from closed branches to neighboring ones as part of their efforts to maintain business operations at the windows. There was growing demand in the disaster areas at this point for cash to purchase daily necessities, and to meet such demand each.
Last one about CHF currency, this decline is almost exclusively due to a more negative assessment of households on their saving possibilities. By contrast, assessment on job security improved markedly. Significant changes were registered during the survey for households' assessments on price development over the last twelve months instead of droping in commodity prices, took some of the hot air out of the Swissy. Switzerland’s economy is doing great, but the falling commodity prices and the European weakness might be marking a long awaited turnaround
In summary, 5 major currency were stilll not good condition for this week, almost all major currency dropped. You should carefully consider some indicator above because those result gave a high impact as well as fundamental factors. Broadly analyze will help trader to make a right decision.
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