5 Major Currency Showed Significant Result Both technical and Fundamental

25-30 April, Today, I would like to make a summary of 5 major currency mover toward USD both technical and fundamental factors. Along this week there had some important indicator which will influence trader to make right decision before “BUY” or “SELL”. 5 summary of indicators below can be used as a insight what had been happened.

Technical factors

EUR/USD, German prelim cpi m/m showed the same in what people expected about 0,2% (actual). Gfk german consumer climate was slightly dropped from 5,9 (forecast) to 5,7 (actual) .Industrial new order m/m dropped from 1,3% to 0,9%. French consumer spending m/m was in zone negative from 0,9% (previous) to -0,7% (actual). German Unemployment Change had reduced from previous (-55K) to actual (-37K) . M3 money supply rose slightly from 2,1% to 2,3%. Cpi flash estimate y/y was good which more than expected about 2,8%. German retail sales m/m was bad result from -0,4% to -2,1% . Unemployment rate was remain unchanged still about 9,9%

AUD/USD, Cb leading index m/m 0,1% to 0,6%. Cpi q/q rose from 1,2% (forecast)  to 1,6% (actual). Trimmed mean cpi q/q was good from 0,7% to 0,9% more than expected. Private sector credit m/m was more than expected about 0,6% the same with previous result.

GBP/USD, CBI Industrial Order Expectations dropped very bad from previous (5) to actual (-11). MPC Member Sentance Speaks. BBA Mortgage Approvals was good from 30,6K to 31,7K (actual) more than expected. GfK Consumer Confidence was bad from 28 to -31. Prelim GDP q/q -0,5% to 0,5%

USD/JPY, Retail Sales y/y was bad from -5,7% (forecast)  to -8,5% (actual). Household Spending y/y also dropped from -6,6% (forecast) to -8,5% (actual). Tokyo Core CPI y/y improved from -0,3% to 0,2%. Unemployment Rate raised 4,8% (forecast) to 4,6% (actual). Prelim Industrial Production m/m -10,5%  to -15,3% worse than expected. Overnight Call Rate was still the same about <0,10%.

USD/CHF, Trade Balance was not like people expected which dropped from forecast 2,27B to actual 1,09B. UBS Consumption Indicator rose from 1,45 to 1,66. SNB Chairman Hildebrand Speaks. KOF Economic Barometer improved and exceed forecast about 2,29 compared with forecast 2,20

Fundamental factor

Both French and German are two country that the most influence for EUR currency, this can be seen on consumer spending fell in march as bad as German retail sales especially for Food, drink and tobacco sales lower than in March 2010, while non-food turnover was down 2.4% over the same period. For Euro zone inflation rose further above the European Central Bank's target in April, increasing the chances of an interest rate rise in June, despite a weakening of economic sentiment and household demand. A GfK consumer climate report also pointed to growth in employment, which, along with the "excellent economic situation," was helping to ease employment worries and keep buying propensity at a high level. Meanwhile, decline in jobless fears in Germany in March will involve EUR currency. on this week economic of japan still in recession. At this time BOJ need to focus on downside risks to the economy from the quake's impact, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the central bank still needed time to examine the effects on the economy of its monetary easing last month. The BOJ is planning to take the decisive step of increasing asset buying in March. Looking at economic of aussie is still showing good sign. Today's figures show an unsurprising spike in inflation caused by summer floods and Cyclone instead of high food price. Moreover, the price increases would have been stripped out of the underlying inflation result. while the strength of the Australian dollar will continue to keep imported inflation low and curb Aussie export industries. read more here. If we look at Swiss franc,  the new car registrations were the main driver of the increase (up 34.3% compared to the previous month). This was the highest number of car registrations recorded in March since 2001. The trend in overnight stays of domestic visitors saw a reversal. Low interest rates, improvements in the labor market and ongoing immigration continue as pillars of private consumption and the broader economy. While investments are the main growth drivers, private consumption also represents an important mainstay. Hildebrand said price stability might be threatened by higher commodity prices, a weakening franc and the central bank’s expansionary policy. “Should the Swiss franc weaken again rapidly, rising commodity prices could also have an impact in our country,” Hildebrand said at the central bank’s annual general meeting in the capital Bern. “Furthermore, the expansionary monetary policy carries long-term risks for price stability.” "Budget for Growth" failed to soothe fears about looming spending cuts and squeezes on real incomes. Production costs have jumped markedly during the last 3 months, rocketing ahead after a full year of already rapid cost inflation. Beneath the headline figure, however, the figures reveal core areas of the economy growing healthily and bouncing back strongly from the weather affected Q4 downturn. Growth was led by transport, storage and communication output, as well as business services and finance. There was also strong growth in manufacturing. Weak trading activity is discouraging businesses from borrowing to expand and most are oriented towards repaying debt and reducing their operating costs; larger corporates are also using the capital markets less." and Householders also remain focused on paying down debt, leading to a net contraction of unsecured borrowing and low net mortgage lending, although new mortgage lending is holding up fairly well read more here. In other side, we look at this week of USD currency, some of high impact indicators showed good result, but it does not mean the US economic is in the good position right now. This can be seen on US currency was still low toward others currency in the past two years.

Generally, 5 major currency had raised along this week and showed a good result toward USD. This because of both fundamental and technical gave a positive indicators.

Source: Forexfactory

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