Sales of New Homes in U.S. Rose in April

Purchases of new houses rose in April for a second month as the market struggled to recover from a record low.

Sales climbed 7.3 percent to a 323,000 annual pace last month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists called for sales at a 300,000 annual rate. New houses sold at a 278,000 rate in February, matching the pace in August as the lowest in data going back to 1963.

Job gains and increased affordability may be starting to help underpin a housing market that’s lagged behind the rest of the economy. Nonetheless, the prospect that foreclosures will keep driving down property values means that buyers may continue to favor previously owned dwellings, indicating it will take years for builders like D.R. Horton Inc. to see a full recovery.

“We’re looking at a modest upward trend, with some bouncing around at this level,” said Bricklin Dwyer, an economist at BNP Paribas in New York. “Housing will bounce around near these levels in terms of new and existing sales, with a bit of further declines in prices. We should see a pickup later in the year.”

Another report today showed manufacturing, which led the economy out of the recession, may be cooling. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s factory index dropped to minus 6 this month, the lowest reading since April 2009. Negative numbers indicate manufacturing was shrinking.

Shares Climb

Stocks held earlier gains after the reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.4 percent to 1,323.11 at 10:27 a.m. in New York. The S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index climbed 0.9 percent.

Estimate in the Bloomberg survey of 75 economists ranged from 280,000 to 320,000. Sales in March were revised to a 301,000 annual rate from a 300,000 previously reported.

The median sales price increased 4.6 percent from the same month last year, to $217,900, today’s report showed.

The gain may reflect a change in the mix of sales to higher- priced homes in the West, where demand jumped 15 percent. The other three regions also saw purchases increase.

The supply of homes at the current sales rate dropped to 6.5 month’s worth in April, the lowest in a year, from 7.2 months in March. There were 175,000 new houses on the market at the end of April, the fewest since records began in 1963.

Executives Dour

Building executives are still concerned about the outlook. Demand for new houses will remain weak into next year, said Bill Wheat, chief financial officer of Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc., the second-largest U.S. home builder by revenue. “We feel it could still be a struggle in 2012.”

Builders are cutting back as a result. Housing starts fell 11 percent in April to a 523,000 annual pace, the second-weakest reading since April 2009’s record low, figures from the Commerce Department showed last week.

One reason for the slump is growing interest from investors in buying distressed properties. Previously owned homes sold at a 5.05 million annual rate in April, down 0.8 percent from the prior month, data from the National Association of Realtors showed May 19. All-cash deals accounted for 31 percent of transactions, and distressed properties, including foreclosures and short sales, made up 37 percent, the group said.

As distressed transactions have played a bigger role, new- home sales have shrunk as a share of total sales. They accounted for just under 6 percent of the market in March, down from 16 percent at their peak in July 2005.

More Foreclosures

The supply of existing houses will probably remain an issue. CoreLogic Inc. in March estimated about 1.8 million homes were more than 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure or bank-owned, a so- called “shadow inventory” set to add to the unsold supply of 3.87 million previously owned homes already on the market.

Foreclosures have weighed on home prices. The S&P/Case- Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month decrease since November 2009, the group said last month. The gauge is down 33 percent from its July 2006 peak.

In addition to the drop in values, persistent joblessness may be making some potential buyers hesitate. The 9 percent unemployment rate last month, almost two years into an economic recovery, compares with an average of 4.8 percent in the three years before the recession began.

Douglas Yearley Jr., chief executive officer at Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL), the largest U.S. luxury-home builder, last week said the spring home-selling season has been “disappointing” and that “people are still scared.”

Source: Bloomberg By Bob Willis

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Good Sign of Jobless Claims in U.S Fall More Than Forecast

In this week, one of indicator which has a high impact is “unemployment rate”. This indicator will influence US currency mover and bring an effect  into economic condition in the coming week. If we look at the result from forexfactory, jobless claims fell into actual result about 409.000 figured out by labor department U.S, this was more than forecast about 421.000. Moreover, for two previous week has decreased gradually approximately 65.000 in may.

Some of factors that give impact to unemployment rate indicator can be vary. Labor market is the important thing that U.S must maintain because the effect of fluctuate unemployment rate will influence economic in the coming years. The most influence reason from falling of jobless claim is declining firings and gains in hiring, this are definitely helping sustain consumer spending, payrolls have climbed for seven consecutive months even though there have an increase costs of both food and fuel. High fuel costs are among reasons consumers are limiting purchases for people especially people who have no job.

Another reason is because of late school holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan, the Labor Department has said. Flooding in the South hasn’t been a significant influence so far on the number of applications, the department official said today. However, no much special factors affecting and the median forecast was based on a survey of 49 economists but the continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

While the U.S. economy is showing some signs of improvement, we expect the recovery will continue to be slow and uneven.” Job market conditions had “continued to improve time by time. Beside that, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said in a May 11 speech in Cincinnati. “I expect it could take about five years for the unemployment rate to reach its longer-run sustainable rate of 5.5 to 6 percent

The question is what relation between unemployment rate with currency mover? Of course between both of them have a strong relation which Labor market condition is correlated with consumer spending, let see that if unemployment rate dropped, means that many people get job which will be able to earn money eventually right so this can lead people to spend their money for household need. As a result, consumer spending raise and help US currency become better toward other currency. That is why the trader should consider unemployment rate indicator because of having a high impact into currency before they “buy” or “Sell” it. All are logic and make sense.

Source: Bloomberg

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Japan Machine Orders Unexpectedly Rose in March, Withstanding Quake Impact

Japan’s machinery orders unexpectedly rose even amid factory shutdowns, power shortages and supply- chain disruptions caused by a record earthquake. 

Factory orders rose 2.9 percent in March from February, when they dropped a revised 1.9 percent, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Orders, an indicator of capital spending in three to six months, were projected to fall 10 percent, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. 

The report bolsters the view that the world’s third-biggest economy is regaining momentum after the earthquake and tsunami that left more than 24,000 dead or missing and caused a nuclear radiation crisis. Tokyo-based Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., the world’s biggest maker of giant excavators, said it expects to be back to full production capacity as early as this week. 

“We thought it was too soon for companies to get their reconstruction plans in place, but this shows that they were already preparing to repair their facilities in March,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, a senior economist at Itochu Corp. in Tokyo. “Japanese manufacturing’s going to be back earlier than we had expected, and we’ll soon start to see capital spending boosts as well.” 

The yen traded at 81.03 per dollar at 10:57 a.m. in Tokyo, and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.6 percent to 9,592.71.

Restrictions Relaxed

The government is asking companies and households to restrict power use by 15 percent this summer, less than its earlier prediction that savings of at least 20 percent would be necessary. Tokyo Electric Power Co. said on May 13 it plans to raise its power capacity to 56.2 million kilowatts by the end of August, 94 percent of last summer’s peak. 

Companies surveyed by the government forecast orders will increase 10 percent in the three months ending June 30, the report showed, which would be the biggest advance since 1989. From a year earlier, machinery orders rose 6.8 percent in March, today’s report showed. 

Production at five Hitachi Construction plants in Ibaraki prefecture, north of Tokyo, will probably return to 100 percent capacity this week, Chief Executive Officer Michijiro Kikawa said in an interview. Output in late April dipped to 60 percent of capacity, he said. 

“We still face uncertainties about procurement of some parts,” Kikawa, 63, said on May 11. “But things are far better.”

Output Increases

A government report showed last month that companies plan to increase factory output 3.9 percent in April and 2.7 percent in May, after a record decline in March. 

Nissan Motor Co.’s net income was 30.8 billion yen ($380 million) for the three months ended March 31, beating the 23 billion yen average of five analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

Japan’s economy probably contracted at an annual 2 percent pace in the three months ended March 31, according to the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by the Bloomberg News. That would be the first time the economy shrank for two straight quarters since the global financial crisis. The report will be released May 19. 

“The level of economic activity may already be on the mend,” Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in Tokyo, said before the report. “With the outlook for power supply this summer so much better than before, it now seems likely that the economy will continue trending higher.”

Better Than Expected

Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano last week expressed optimism about a turnaround, saying that the disaster’s effect on output was “smaller than first thought.” 

Prime Minister Naoto Kan’s administration plans a second extra budget to pay for reconstruction, following an initial 4 trillion yen ($50 billion) package that it says may create about 200,000 jobs. The government in March estimated that damage from the disaster may swell to as high as 25 trillion yen. 

Companies said it’s hard to predict how the earthquake will affect machine orders in coming months, said Minoru Masujima, head of statistics at the Cabinet Office. 

“Given the current state of the economy after the quake, corporate earnings will likely deteriorate toward the July- September period and growth expectations are low,” Hiroshi Watanabe, an economist at the Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. “We should stay cautious about the outlook for capital spending.”

Producer Prices

Japan’s producer prices rose 2.5 percent in April from a year earlier, the biggest jump since October 2008, a separate report released by the Bank of Japan showed in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 2.1 percent increase. 

The central bank will “carefully monitor” whether sustained gains in oil gains will spur inflation expectations, Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on April 28. The March 11 earthquake may only have a small effect on Japan’s prices should longer-term inflation expectations remain stable, the bank said in a report released last week. 

Source: Bloomberg By Keiko Ujikane 

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Housing Finance, Australia, Mar 2011

Value of Dwellings Financed

The total value of dwelling commitments excluding alterations and additions (trend) fell 1.6% in March 2011 compared with February 2011 and the seasonally adjusted series fell 0.1% in March 2011.

The total value of owner occupied housing commitments (trend) fell 1.7% (down $237m) in March 2011, following a fall of 1.7% in February 2011. Falls were recorded in commitments for the purchase of established dwellings (down $187m, 1.6%), the purchase of new dwellings (down $32m, 4.8%) and the construction of dwellings (down $17m, 1.4%). The seasonally adjusted series for the value of owner occupied commitments fell 1.1% in March 2011.

The total value of investment housing commitments (trend) fell 1.3% (down $85m) in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 1.3% in February 2011. Falls were recorded in commitments for the purchase of dwellings by individuals for rent or resale (down $96m, 1.8%) and the construction of dwellings for rent or resale (down $2m, 0.5%), while commitments for the purchase of dwellings by others for rent or resale rose (up $13m, 2.0%). The value of investment housing commitments seasonally adjusted rose 2.1% in March 2011.

INVESTMENT HOUSING - TOTAL

Number of Owner Occupied Dwellings Financed

The number of owner occupied housing commitments (trend) fell (down 957, 2.0%) in March 2011 compared with February 2011. Falls were recorded in commitments for the purchase of established dwellings excluding refinancing (down 538, 2.1%), the refinancing of established dwellings (down 230, 1.5%), the purchase of new dwellings (down 112, 5.6%) and the construction of dwellings (down 76, 1.6%). The seasonally adjusted estimate for the total number of owner occupied housing commitments fell 1.5% in March 2011.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwellings Financed - State

Between February 2011 and March 2011, the number of owner occupied housing commitments (trend) fell in all states with Queensland (down 267, 3.2%), New South Wales (down 248, 1.7%), Victoria (down 175, 1.3%), South Australia (down 51, 1.4%), Western Australia (down 31, 0.6%), the Australian Capital Territory (down 19, 1.9%), Tasmania (down 12, 1.2%) and the Northern Territory (down 1, 0.4%). The seasonally adjusted estimates fell in all states except New South Wales (up 213, 1.5%), Western Australia (up 115, 2.1%) and the Northern Territory (up 8, 2.7%).


First Home Buyer Commitments

In original terms, the number of first home buyer commitments as a percentage of total owner occupied housing finance commitments rose from 14.9% in February 2011 to 16.0% in March 2011. Between February 2011 and March 2011, the average loan size for first home buyers rose $2,500 to $279,500. The average loan size for all owner occupied housing commitments rose $4,000 to $285,500 for the same period.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwellings Financed Excluding Refinancing

The number of owner occupied housing commitments excluding refinancing (trend) fell 2.3% in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 2.3% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series fell 0.9% in March 2011.

PURPOSE OF FINANCE (OWNER OCCUPATION)

Construction of dwellings

The number of finance commitments for the construction of dwellings for owner occupation (trend) fell 1.6% in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 1.7% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series fell 1.1% in March 2011.

Purchase of new dwellings

The number of finance commitments for the purchase of new dwellings for owner occupation (trend) fell 5.6% in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 5.4% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series rose 2.4% in March 2011, after falls of more than 8% in each of the three previous months.

Purchase of established dwellings (including refinancing across lending institutions)

The number of finance commitments for the purchase of established dwellings for owner occupation (trend) fell 1.9% in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 1.8% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series fell 1.8% in March 2011.

Refinancing

The number of refinancing commitments for owner occupied housing (trend) fell 1.5% in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 1.2% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series fell 3.0% in March 2011.

TYPE OF LENDER (OWNER OCCUPATION)

Banks

The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by banks (trend) fell 1.5% in March 2011 compared with February 2011, following a fall of 1.6% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series rose 0.1% in March 2011.

Non-banks

The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by non-banks (trend) fell 5.1% in March 2011, following a fall of 4.4% in February 2011. The seasonally adjusted series fell 12.3% in March 2011, following falls of more than 9% in each of the two previous months. The number of commitments for owner occupied dwellings financed by permanent building societies (trend) fell 4.0%. The seasonally adjusted series rose 0.5% in March 2011.

HOUSING LOAN OUTSTANDINGS

At the end of March 2011, the value of outstanding housing loans financed by authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) was $1,074,328m, up $11,503m (1.1%) from the February 2011 closing balance. Owner occupied housing loan outstandings financed by ADIs rose $8,798m (1.2%) to $751,144m and investment housing loan outstandings financed by ADIs rose $2,705m (0.8%) to $323,184m.

Bank housing loan outstandings rose $8,890m (0.9%) during March 2011 to reach a closing balance of $1,018,866m. Owner occupied housing loan outstandings of banks rose $6,404m (0.9%) to $706,263m and investment housing loan outstandings of banks rose $2,486m (0.8%) to $312,603m.

Source: Aud Gov

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King Raises Inflation Forecast – Boosts the Pound

Mevyn King surprised and raised the long term inflation forecasts in the BOE Inflation Report. The report also states that GDP is better than reported. This boosts GBP/USD that broke above resistance. Update.
 

The governor of the BoE, Mervyn King, is usually pessimistic and his actions tend to weaken the British pound. This time is different. Contrary to the usual stance that inflation is fueled by fuel and food, and that it is temporary, the inflation report sees a long term rise in inflation. The two year horizon, long term no matter how you look at it, was raised to almost 2%.

This may sound low in the long term, but it’s significantly higher than the previous long term estimate of 1.6%. This change raises the chances of a rate hike sooner than later.

At the beginning of the week, there was talk that a downgrade of the growth forecasts would hurt the pound. The BOE indeed lowered the growth forecasts, but it wasn’t too bad. Growth is expected to be at around 3%, and there’s also a comment about official GDP figures being too low – this is very good for the pound.

It seems that the market focuses on inflation and improved chances of a rate hike in the near future. This goes hand in hand with the current optimism that replaced the gloomy mood at the end of the previous week and at the beginning of this one.

GBP/USD now trades just under 1.65, approaching the 1.6540 line. Levels above are 1.66 and 1.67. Below we find 1.6430 and 1.63.

Earlier today, the pound made significant gains on various factors. Greece is likely to receive another bailout package. While this may be a temporary solution, the markets like it, and it weakens the dollar across the board. In addition, there are talks that China might actually cut its interest rate, and this also triggers risk appetite, weakening the dollar. All this sent GBP/USD towards the 1.6430 resistance line.

Source: Forex Crunch

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Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell 44,000 Last Week

The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment insurance payments fell less than forecast last week, indicating recovery in the labor market is taking time to accelerate. 

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 44,000 in the week ended May 7 to 434,000, Labor Department figures showed today. Economists forecast 430,000 claims, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls rose, while those getting extended payments decreased. 

A further decline in the number of firings accompanied by job gains elsewhere may shore up consumers’ confidence and boost average incomes, helping Americans overcome the strains of higher food and energy costs. U.S. payrolls have expanded for seven straight months, a sign the labor market is strengthening. 

“These numbers are consistent with the consumer continuing to spend and the recovery continuing to gain traction,” said Conrad DeQuadros, a senior economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York. “The only problem is that we’re digging out of a very deep hole in employment, so the unemployment rate will probably remain elevated.” 

Other reports today showed retail sales rose in April, reflecting gains at service stations and grocery stores, and wholesale costs rose more than forecast.

Treasuries Fall

Stocks and Treasuries fell after the reports. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.3 percent to 1,337.95 at 9:31 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.19 percent from 3.16 percent late yesterday. 

Estimates for first-time claims ranged from 400,000 to 465,000 in the Bloomberg News survey of 44 economists. 

The Labor Department initially reported the prior week’s applications at 474,000, elevated by events that seasonal variations failed to take into account. A spring break holiday in New York, a new emergency benefits program in Oregon and auto shutdowns caused by the disaster in Japan were the main reasons for the surge, a Labor Department spokesman said last week. 

A Labor Department official said today there was a significant increase for initial jobless claims in Alabama related to damage from the tornadoes and storms. The official said that figure did not affect the national numbers. 

The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, increased to 436,750 from 432,250, the highest since November. 

The number of people continuing to collect jobless benefits rose by 5,000 in the week ended April 30 to 3.76 million. Economists forecast the number would fall to 3.7 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of workers receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Emergency Payments

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 17,000 to 4.1 million in the week ended April 23. 

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, held at 3 percent in the week ended April 30, today’s report showed. Thirty-one states and territories reported an increase in claims, while 22 had a decrease. 

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- accelerates. 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said last week the recovery is falling short of the central bank’s goals even with job gains. 

“Economic conditions have improved in the past year,” Dudley said May 6. “Yet the recovery remains moderate and we still have a considerable way to go to meet the Fed’s dual mandate of full employment and price stability.” 

General Motors Co. (GM) said May 10 it will invest $2 billion in plants in eight U.S. states as it works to boost production and market share. About $1.8 billion of that investment would potentially create or save 4,000 jobs at 17 facilities, depending on completing local tax deals, the Detroit-based automaker said. 

Source: Bloomberg By Alex Kowalski and Timothy R. Homan 

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Australian Trade Balance Outlook In This Week

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,729m in March 2011, a decrease of $65m on the revised surplus in February 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,740m in March 2011, a turnaround of $1,827m on the revised deficit in February 2011.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2011 was a surplus of $3,203m, a decrease of $3,587m on the surplus of $6,790m for the three months to December 2010. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the March quarter 2011 surplus was $3,486m, a decrease of $3,317m on the revised December quarter 2010 surplus of $6,803m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2011 and March 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $124m (1%) to $24,663m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $2,106m (9%) to $24,991m. Non-rural goods rose $1,629m (11%) and non-monetary gold rose $503m (59%). Rural goods fell $60m (2%) and net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $26m. Services credits rose $33m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $44m (2%) to $2,523m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $60m (2%) to $2,532m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $33m (5%)
• meat and meat preparations, down $32m (5%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $116m (1%) to $16,644m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,629m (11%) to $16,746m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $891m (15%) after falling $614m (9%) the previous month
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $387m (14%)
• other mineral fuels, up $222m (12%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $129m (15%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities at the end of this section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $26m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $26m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $34m (3%) to $1,195m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $503m (59%) to $1,352m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

In trend terms, services credits fell $2m to $4,275m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $33m (1%) to $4,334m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $19m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $10m to $2,892m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2011 and March 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $189m (1%) to $22,935m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $278m (1%) to $23,251m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $623m (8%) and non-monetary gold rose $84m (25%). Capital goods fell $350m (8%) and consumption goods fell $66m (1%). Services debits fell $13m.

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes increased 0.8% and the implicit price deflator increased 0.9% during the March quarter 2011. In original terms, both the Chain Laspeyres price index and the implicit price deflator increased 1.3%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2011 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $24m to $5,203m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $66m (1%) to $5,178m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $58m (8%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $27m (8%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the non-industrial transport component, up $24m (2%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $14m to $4,063m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $350m (8%) to $3,846m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $323m (51%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $63m (5%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the ADP equipment component, up $61m (10%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $204m (2%) to $8,427m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $623m (8%) to $8,907m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $615m (23%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, the crude petroleum component rose $533m (34%) with volumes up 24% and prices up 8%
• parts for transport equipment, up $81m (11%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $78m (22%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the processed industrial supplied n.e.s. component, down $84m (4%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $33m (9%) to $340m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $84m (25%) to $423m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

In trend terms, services debits rose $27m (1%) to $4,901m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $13m to $4,897m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, down $25m (1%)
• transport, down $10m (1%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the maintenance and repair services n.i.e. component, up $18m.


Selected Commodities

Selected commodities, Price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis
		Oct 2010	Nov 2010	Dec 2010	Jan 2011	Feb 2011	Mar 2011
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Volumes	10	-11	14	-15	-23	np
	Price	-11	1	3	7	3	np
Fines
	Volumes	7	-6	10	-16	-17	np
	Price	-11	1	4	7	4	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	-4	10	-6	-39	-7	39
	Price	-6	-6	-	1	5	-
Semi-soft
	Volumes	8	-5	3	-33	1	40
	Price	-	-6	-2	-2	9	4
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	-1	-19	15	-10	-20	3
	Price	-6	-	2	5	2	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

On a recorded trade basis, between February and March 2011, large value increases were recorded for the following selected commodities:

• hard coking coal rose $415m (39%) with exports to Republic of Korea up $123m and India up $99m (27%), both driven by an increase in volumes
• semi-soft coal rose $226m (45%) with exports to Republic of Korea up $126m and Japan up $50m (21%), both driven by an increase in volumes.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

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